Back in the early aughts, when the Buffalo Bills were firmly mired in the midst of a long, miserable playoff drought that was still going to be worse before it was better, I used to read a lot of Bill Simmons’ work. Admitting that now feels far less cool then it was at that point—or at least as it seemed, anyway—but Simmons had a unique way of blending humor, pop culture, and sports together to create entertaining bits of writing.
One of his bits that has always stuck with me centered on the “if Player X can stay healthy” trope that often surrounds the discussion of athletes. He began talking about injuries that way in earnest with a young Detroit Lions quarterback named Matthew Stafford, a player who hadn’t reached his potential due to a slew of early-career injuries. But the player it always stuck out most with to me was former Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman.
Simmons used to call him “Josh Freeman If He Can Stay Healthy” as if it were his actual name. The joke, of course, wasn’t really at the expense of the player, but instead at the expense of fans, pundits, fantasy football players, and others with a rooting interest in the player performing to a level he had yet to unlock. Much of that discourse amounted to something like, “If Freeman can stay healthy, he can be a top producer in the league.”
In today’s edition of “91 players in 91 days,” we discuss a tight end who can be a top producer in the NFL…if he can just stay healthy.
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Name: Dalton Kincaid
Number: 86
Position: TE
Height/Weight: 6’3” 246 lbs.
Age: 26 (27 on 10/18/2026)
Experience/Draft: 4; selected by Buffalo in the first round (No. 25 overall) of the 2023 NFL Draft
College: Utah
Acquired: First-round draft choice
Financial situation (per Spotrac): Kincaid enters the fourth year of his rookie contract, and he carries a cap hit of $4,272,234 for the season. The Bills have already picked up the fifth-year option on his deal, so he’s under contract for 2027 with a cap hit of $8.162 million, as well.
2025 Recap: After missing time in 2024 thanks to a PCL tear, Kincaid started the 2025 season on a great pace. In Buffalo’s first five games, he totaled 20 catches for 287 yards and three touchdowns. Extrapolating that out to 17 games, it would have put him on pace for a 68/976/10 for the season. However, Kincaid missed Buffalo’s Week Six loss at the Atlanta Falcons due to an oblique strain, and he wasn’t the same upon his return. Kincaid had one big game—Buffalo’s 28-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week Nine where he caught six passes for 101 yards and a score—but that single contest made up nearly all of his remaining regular season production. A hamstring strain caused him to miss three games in November, as well. In Kincaid’s final seven games, he caught 19 passes for 284 yards and two scores. That comes out to a 46/690/5 pace over 17 games, which is remarkably close to what his regular-season numbers ended up being. In 12 games, Kincaid totaled 39 catches for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns on 49 targets. In the playoffs, he was exceptional, totaling nine catches for 11 yards and two scores on 11 targets. For his efforts, he was named to the Pro Bowl Games, replacing Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce when he dropped out. After the season, it was confirmed that Kincaid never had surgery to repair his PCL after the 2024 injury, instead dealing with the tear and rehabbing the injury through joint-strengthening physical therapy options.
Positional outlook: Kincaid is one of five tight ends on Buffalo’s current roster. Shane Zylstra, Keleki Latu, Jackson Hawes, and Dawson Knox are the others.
2026 Offseason: Kincaid played in Buffalo’s preseason opener, but he was not targeted in the 29-14 victory. He held up well as an in-line blocker on at least one long play, as he took on outside linebacker Trevis Gipson and gave Josh Allen time to hit Khalil Shakir downfield on a second-quarter touchdown drive. He also was instrumental blocking downfield on a long gain for James Cook on a toss on that same drive.
2026 Season outlook: Kincaid definitely bulked up this offseason, as I admittedly had a hard time figuring out whether it was him or Dawson Knox on the field during Buffalo’s preseason opener. It used to be a little easier—just look for the bulkier fella and it was Knox—but with some added muscle, Kincaid looks much stronger entering his fourth season. He’s going to need that strength to translate to durability if he’s going to reach his full potential.
When Kincaid is on the field, Buffalo’s offense is extremely hard to stop. He was the single best tight end target in the game last season in terms of quarterback rating, as Bills quarterbacks had a 149.2 rating when targeting Kincaid in the passing game. He also led all tight ends in yards per catch, notching 14.6 yards per reception. The issue for Kincaid has never been his ability; it has always been his availability.
With San Francisco 49ers wideout Ricky Pearsall undergoing PCL surgery this offseason, a procedure that is likely to sideline him for 9-12 months, we see why Kincaid chose a more conservative treatment plan to mitigate his injury. Granted, we don’t know if the two issues are exactly the same, but they do impact the same ligament. Kincaid understandably wanted to play last season, and while he was certainly limited by his knee injury and the other muscle issues he encountered over the course of the season, he still showed himself to be an elite receiver when he was on the field.
If he can become a better blocker—and early returns are certainly encouraging—then he can take the next step towards becoming the player Buffalo thought he would be when the chose him No. 25 overall in 2023. All of it starts with one thing, though, and it’s the Bill Simmons corrolary to Kincaid’s actual surname. With any luck, “Dalton Kincaid If He Can Stay Healthy” can become a thing of the past just like it did with Matthew Stafford.
Less pain for Dalton Kincaid plus an alpha wideout in DJ Moore equals more pain for opposing defenses. That’s the kind of math equation I can get behind heading into the 2026 NFL season.
